Risk analysis for forecasting cyberattacks against connected and autonomous vehicles

The proliferation of connected and autonomous vehicles provides new opportunities for crime. Predicting crime is one of the enduring challenges for the security community. Connected and autonomous vehicles present a particular challenge for society, because it will be possible for remote attackers to hack into them, or for such vehicles to be used driverless to commit crimes, in effect anonymizing the offender.

A security risk analysis was conducted to identify possible cyberattacks against a future transport system consisting of autonomous and connected vehicles. Six scenarios were developed: joyriding, kidnapping, domestic abuse, autopilot manipulation, a large transport accident, and paralysis of the transport system. Even if it were possible to increase the difficulty of conducting such cyberattacks, it might be impossible to eliminate such attacks entirely. Measures that limit the consequences will therefore be necessary. Such measures include safety measures in vehicles to protect their occupants in traffic accidents and measures that make vehicles easier to remove in case they do not function.

This study was funded by the EU-funded (Horizon 2020) project LEVITATE. Open access funding was provided by our project partner Institute Of Transport Economics.

Read our Open Access publication ‘Risk analysis for forecasting cyberattacks against connected and autonomous vehicles‘ in the Journal of Transportation Security (November 2021), written by Sunniva F. Meyer, Rune Elvik & Espen Johnsson.

Impacts of autonomous on-demand mobility service: A simulation experiment in the City of Athens

High-capacity Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) are expected to be extensively utilized by on-demand services. This paper aims to assess the impacts of large-scale autonomous on-demand mobility services on traffic, environment, and road safety, under various service specifications using microsimulation. To that end, an urban on-demand shuttle service was designed, optimized, based on a variation of the Dial-a-Ride optimization problem (DARP), and implemented in the road network of the city of Athens to serve different portions of demand with various capacity specifications. It was then investigated through forty mobility scenarios, with differences in policy implementation and market penetration rate of CAVs. Findings show that it led to improved network level traffic conditions, as delays decreased, and that traffic impacts evolve with fleet capacity and served demand. Furthermore, the number of conflicts decreased and the environmental conditions significantly improved, with CAVs in the network, while the traveled distance increased.

Read the full article »

LEVITATE webinar: Automated road transport – impact assessment methodologies

Cooperative, connected, and automated mobility (CCAM) is expected to be introduced in increasing numbers over the next decades, having considerable impacts on mobility, safety, the environment and society as a whole. The Horizon 2020 project LEVITATE aims to prepare a new impact assessment framework to enable policymakers to manage the introduction of cooperative, connected and automated mobility, maximise the benefits and utilise the technologies to achieve societal objectives.

LEVITATE  studied 3 use cases: automated urban transport, the automated passenger cars and the automated freight transport. In terms of the automated urban transport use case two sub-use cases were studied. The point-to-point automated urban shuttle service (AUSS) and the on-demand AUSS that were formulated after an extensive literature review and a Stakeholders reference group workshop. For these sub-use cases several impacts were quantified on traffic, safety, the environment, and society using microscopic simulation, mesoscopic simulation, system dynamics and the Delphi method.

This webinar took place on 23 November. The impact assessment methodologies used and the results that occurred regarding the automated urban transport sub-use cases were discussed. Several partners presented their findings including National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), Loughborough University (LOUGH) and the Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT).

In case couldn’t attend this webinar, watch the recording »

The next  LEVITATE webinar will take place on 14 December.

Quantifying the implementation impacts of a point to point automated urban shuttle service in a large-scale network

Autonomous point to point shuttles are an emerging paradigm of a future mobility-on-demand ecosystem. However, the traffic and environmental impacts of their operation are largely under researched especially in relation to influential infrastructure related factors and service-related specifications.

The scope of this study is to reveal the factors that may affect the degree and magnitude of the road segment level impacts of an autonomous urban shuttle service (AUSS) operating in a city using microsimulation and structural equation modeling (SEM). For the purposes of this research, a systematic framework is developed and applied in the city center of Athens (Greece), which encompasses different scenarios of operations including: (i) Baseline (no AUSS operation), (ii) AUSS operation with a dedicated lane during peak hour, (iii) AUSS operation mixed with regular traffic during peak hour and (iv) AUSS operation mixed with regular traffic during off-peak hour. Two connected automated vehicle (CAV) profiles were used to model the advent of automation in the overall traffic: a cautious profile is introduced first, followed by a more aggressive profile. SEM findings indicate that the AUSS operation has a significant effect on cumulative travel time per segment and CO2 emissions per segment only during the scenario of mixed operation with traffic during off-peak hours. Additionally, the influence of the network geometry is correlated with reduced travel time and with increased CO2 emissions. Road traffic density was found to be positively correlated with both travel time and CO2 emissions, while the penetration of both cautious and aggressive CAVs was found to be negatively correlated with both indicators.

Read our publication ‘Quantifying the implementation impacts of a point to point automated urban shuttle service in a large-scale network’ based on the research carried out in WP5 in the Transport Policy Journal using this link.

LEVITATE participation in the ICTR conference, Rhodes, 2021

Authors: Apostolos Ziakopoulos (NTUA), Maria Oikonomou (NTUA), Julia Roussou (NTUA), George Yannis (NTUA)

  1. General information

The Hellenic Institute of Transportation Engineers (HITE) and the Hellenic Institute of Transport (HIT/CERTH) co-organized the 10th International Congress on Transportation Research (ICTR 2021), which was held on September 1st – 3rd 2021, at the Mediterranean Hotel in Rhodes, Greece. The spotlight theme of the 2021 Congress was “Future Mobility and Resilient Transport: Transition to innovation” (https://ictr.gr/). LEVITATE was represented in the conference by NTUA (https://www.nrso.ntua.gr/).

  1. CCAM workshop – Challenges & Lessons learned,
    Wednesday, September 1st, 2021, (09:00 – 13:30).

The Conference started with a series of workshops, one of which was devoted to CCAM, titled Challenges & Lessons Learned in CCAM, organized by SHOW Innovation Action (https://show-project.eu/) and in specific by the Technical Management team of the Hellenic Institute of Transport (HIT) of CERTH. There were 12 presentations made – some of which originated from regular papers of the Conference and some of which being invited speeches – whereas the workshop closed with a round table. The work presented originated from SPACE, SHOW, AVENUE, WISE-ACT, Drive2theFuture, Trustonomy, SUaaVE, ICT4CART, EIMANTRA, LEVITATE, SPROUT and ARCADE initiatives as well as from CCAM Platform WG3.

NTUA represented LEVITATE actively in the CCAM workshop (i) with a presentation by Apostolos Ziakopoulos titled “Forecasting and backcasting of Connected Automated Vehicle impacts using multiple methodological inputs” (ii) with the participation and contributions of Professor George Yannis to the roundtable discussion of eight renowned experts.

Critical outcomes of the presentation include the reality that the integration of the expectations of different users (City/road management authorities, researchers, industrial practitioners) in a functional Policy Support Tool remains an uphill battle. Furthermore, backcasting capabilities for impact assessment provide a powerful means to complement forecasting and to define visions & goals to be reached. Large degrees of uncertainty remain for the CCAM landscape regarding the scope, form & feasibility of automation-based policy interventions. The combination of multiple methodologies for CCAM impact assessment brings considerable advantages (increased parameter coverage) but is hard to integrate different variable dependencies and requires high level coordination.

  1. Session II (A) – Intelligent Transport Systems,
    Thursday, September 2nd, 2021, (14:30 – 16:30).

Session II (A) Advanced Intelligent Transport systems can improve current transportation systems both for passenger and freight. For the successful implementation of ITS in real conditions, it is critical to gather and combine different types of data (infrastructure-based, real time traffic data, as well as other open-source, dynamic or static data). Overall, CAVs are considered as a promising solution towards the improvement of the current traffic conditions. However, several simulation studies presented at this session indicated that no significant differences in terms of traffic-related parameters are expected. In addition, the level of improvement is critically affected by the proportion of traffic operated by CAVs (mixed traffic vs whole traffic operated with AVs).

NTUA represented LEVITATE in the session with a presentation by Maria Oikonomou titled “Impacts of autonomous transit services on urban networks: The case of Athens, Greece”, focusing on the microsimulation work conducted within WP5 of LEVITATE.

Key outputs of the presentation include the findings regarding point-to-point shuttle bus services, which led to increased delays and total distance travelled, while on the contrary the on-demand service showed decreased delays and constant driven kilometers. The introduction of the different shuttle bus services did not significantly affect conflicts as well as emissions, which were significantly lower when the number of CAVs was increased. In a small-scale urban network, automation did not affect traffic-related measurements, while in a large-scale urban network decreased delays, increased distance travelled and reduced conflicts were noticed.

  1. Session IV(A) – Transport planning and policy,
    Friday, September 3rd, 2021, (08:30 – 10:15).

Session IV(A) – Transport planning and policy addressed crucial issues examined and presented by expert researchers for the development and implementation of specific policies, tools and actions for achieving a successful transport planning in urban areas. As well established, sustainability plays an important role in all fields of transportation systems, thus it has to be seriously considered from the very beginning of a transport planning process. Therefore, actions and policies to be implemented should always be evaluated, leading researchers in the development and application of appropriate tools for achieving the best results in terms of sustainability.

NTUA represented LEVITATE in the session with a presentation by Apostolos Ziakopoulos titled “Forecasting impacts of Connected and Automated Transport Systems within the Levitate project.” This presentation placed more emphasis on the forecasting estimator of LEVITATE compared to the workshop presentation.

Several conclusions considered the future of the PST development, and the functionalities which will be available for the PST user as the LEVITATE project moves forward. Overall, it was highlighted that the LEVITATE PST aspires to become the go to, one stop shop tool for the calculation of societal impacts of automation by experts, authorities, stakeholders and any other interested party.

  1. Concluding remarks

As stated in the roundtable discussion of the CCAM workshop, and in the sessions co-influenced by LEVITATE inputs, CCAM initiatives should include holistic new paradigms that have to satisfy sustainable mobility while achieving transport safety, efficiency and environmental targets simultaneously. Stakeholder cooperation is essential to reach solutions satisfying the needs of road users, citizens, researchers, industry and authorities, and to achieve more clear and transparent outcomes.

Despite the projected elimination of human-related errors from automation, CCAM should not be treated as a de-facto substitute to conventional transport, but rather, a competitor that will have to strive hard for public acceptance. Public transport is proposed as a priority field for CCAM deployment due to both increased societal needs and levels of technological readiness.

  1. References relevant to the LEVITATE participation in ICTR 2021:
  • Ziakopoulos A., Roussou J., Boghani H., Hu B., Zach M., Veisten K., Hartveit K.J., Oikonomou M., Vlahogianni E., Thomas P., Yannis G. (2021). “Forecasting impacts of Connected and Automated Transport Systems within the Levitate project.” 10th International Congress on Transportation Research (ICTR) 2021, Rhodes, Greece, 2-3 September 2021.
  • Oikonomou M., Mourtakos V., Roussou J., Ziakopoulos A., Vlahogianni E., Yannis G. (2021). “Impacts of autonomous transit services on urban networks: The case of Athens, Greece”. 10th International Congress on Transportation Research (ICTR) 2021, Rhodes, Greece, 2-3 September 2021.

All NTUA presentations in ICTR 2021 are available online: https://www.nrso.ntua.gr/ictr2021-10th-international-congress-on-transportation-research-september-2021/

Watch now: webinar on policy interventions

This LEVITATE webinar provided insights on the potential impacts of introducing policy measures related to on-street parking repurposing (driving or cycle lane, public space or pick-up/drop off), road-user pricing and dedicated CAV lanes. These policy interventions have been assessed using realistic traffic models (Manchester and Leicester) in terms of their impacts on traffic (delay and travel time), the environment (CO2, NOx and PM) and road safety. A variety of traffic assessment methods have been used including micro and mesoscopic simulation, systems dynamics and Delphi. A fully calibrated traffic model for Vienna was also presented.

The LEVITATE webinar ‘Policy interventions’ took place on 18 October 2021. Listen to researchers from Loughborough University and the Austrian Institute of Technology.
Watch the recording here »

Road safety impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles

Connected and automated transport systems (CATS) are expected to be introduced in increasing numbers over the next decades. Moreover, they are expected to have considerable impacts on mobility, safety, the environment and society as a whole. One of the aims of LEVITATE is to forecast these impacts. This article collects the impact of CATS on road safety which has been briefly presented during the last webinar of LEVITATE, as well. Moreover, the article written by Wendy Weijermars (SWOV), Andreas Hula (AIT), Amna Chaudhry (LOUGH), Sasa Sha (LOUGH), Rins de Zwart (SWOV), Celina Mons (SWOV) and Hitesh Boghani (LOUGH) further presents the specific impacts on road safety for the individual sub-use cases and communicates how these expected impacts can be quantified. Conclusions suggest that in normal circumstances, CAVs are expected to have a lower crash rate than human driven vehicles; CAVs make less errors than human drivers, are assumed to respect all traffic rules and are expected to have lower reaction times and less variability in driving behaviour.

Curious about further conclusions drawn in the article? Read the entire article: LEVITATE: Road safety impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles.
Note: This article has been updated in July 2021 including further research results derived from the sub-use case.

LEVITATE: applying mesoscopic activity chain simulation

The present article focusses on the application of an agent-based mobility simulation model for the city of Vienna which utilizes activity chain descriptions of the simulated agent’s daily objectives. This is done in the context of the goals of project LEVITATE.

It entails a brief description of the model method, the specific  features of the model, the expectable and intended output of the model, its general assumptions as well as detailsmon two specific areas of interest within the project objectives, namely automated urban transport and road use pricing.

WE-TRANSFORM First Stakeholder Workshop

The EU-funded WE-TRANSFORM project aims to address both gaps by leveraging stakeholders’ knowledge and experiences to co-create an action-oriented agenda, targeting EU and non-EU administrations, and to prepare well the automation transition and transformation of the workforce in the transport sector. This workshop will launch this process as the first Stakeholder Forum event to involve the community in the project activities, to inform about its objectives and how to become actively engaged in the long run.

The purpose of this workshop is to collect additional input on the State-of-the-Art (i.e. reports, scientific articles, etc.) from similar activities related to impacts of automation and digitalisation for all modes of transport (both passenger and freight), but also other automation-driven sectors, to find out their best practices and understand if they are transferable to WE-TRANSFORM focus.
We wish to gather in this dialogue all actors and interested stakeholders including research, industrial and social partners, relevant networks and associations, employers’ and workers’ representatives, across all transport modes and countries.

Mark your calendar and join the discussion! More detailed information on the agenda and registration (participation is free of charge) will be circulated shortly. Stay tuned and follow us for all updates.

Contact: Julie Castermans, ERTICO – ITS Europe, j.castermans@mail.ertico.com

LEVITATE webinar on road safety assessment of CATS

On 27 May, the 4th LEVITATE webinar took place with more than 80 participants to share the project’s research results about the impact of automated vehicles on road safety.

The interactive webinar was introduced by Andrew Morris (Loughborough University) who shared general information about Levitate with the audience. The webinar was moderated by Wendy Weijermars (SWOV) while Rins de Zwart (SWOV), Amna Chaudry (Loughborough University) and Andreas Hula (AIT) shared their research results on road safety impacts of connected and automated vehicles (CATS). Based on a poll launched during the webinar, most participants expect a considerable improvement in road safety with the introduction of CATS, but they do not expect that all serious crashes can be prevented. LEVITATE’s two-steps approach in the estimation of impacts determines that which ways the road safety is impacted by the development of CATS, and as a second step, the project tries to quantify these impacts as far as possible with the help of literature review and conducting interviews with stakeholders. The audience was proactive and asked several questions to the panelists which has been answered live or written during the event.

Curious about the presented impacts on road safety and the outcomes of the discussion? Watch the recorded webinar here: